What the record shows
The first eight auctions all cleared, and the price climbed from $36.00 in March 2021 to $85.40 in September 2022. The cost containment reserve was triggered three times in that run, releasing extra units into the market.
From March 2023 the pattern reverses. Every 2023 auction was declined because bids did not meet the confidential reserve price. Two auctions cleared at the $64.00 price floor in March and December 2024. Since March 2025 every auction has failed, and not one of them received a single bid.
The mechanism is straightforward: when units can be bought in the secondary market below the government's auction price floor, there is no reason to bid at auction. Unsold volume rolls into the next auction, which is why the volume offered has climbed while sales have stayed at zero. The floor is $71.00 for the December 2026 auction, and confirmed settings put it at $75.00 in 2027, rising to $93.00 by 2031.
For anyone carrying a surrender obligation, the practical consequence is that units are bought and sold between holders rather than at auction. The daily indicative figure for that market is on the NZU reference price page.